Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs handed the St. Louis Cardinals a lopsided 10-2 defeat at Busch Stadium on July 28, 2026, breaking the game open early and never allowing St. Louis a path back into it. The DiamondIQ model entered the day giving the Cardinals a 46 percent chance of winning at home, but by the time the dust settled on a dominant Cubs second inning, that figure had collapsed toward zero. Chicago piled up 17 hits against Cardinals pitching while committing no errors, while St. Louis managed just 7 hits and scored twice, once in the fourth and once in the ninth.
The decisive stretch came in the top of the second inning, where Chicago did the bulk of its damage against Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy. Michael Conforto delivered the single most impactful at-bat of the game, a flyout that still registered a win-probability swing of plus 10.4 percent from the Cubs' perspective within the context of the inning's construction, finishing as the top offensive contributor at plus 11.8 percent WPA on the day. Nico Hoerner added a single off McGreevy worth plus 2.9 percent WPA and closed the game at plus 5.8 percent WPA with a run expectancy above average of plus 1.0. Seiya Suzuki doubled off McGreevy for a plus 4.3 percent swing and led position players in RE24 at plus 1.9. On the Cardinals' side, the missed opportunities were equally telling. Masyn Winn's flyout in the bottom of the second cost St. Louis 11.0 percent in win probability, and Alec Burleson's flyout to end the first had already subtracted 4.1 percent in a game the Cardinals could not afford any squandered chances.
The story on the mound belonged entirely to Colin Rea, who accumulated plus 19.0 percent WPA, the highest single figure of any performer in this game, by repeatedly retiring Cardinals hitters in high-leverage situations. Andrew Wantz and Matt Svanson each contributed without impacting the win-probability ledger meaningfully, finishing at plus 0.0 percent WPA apiece. The model leans heavily toward Chicago having controlled every phase of this contest, as the Cubs' line score showed scoring in five of nine innings while St. Louis never managed more than a single run in any frame.