Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

Pittsburgh walked off Arizona 3-2 in ten innings at PNC Park on July 27, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the time Endy Rodríguez singled off Taylor Clarke in the bottom of the tenth to end it. The game was scoreless through five innings before Arizona broke through in the sixth, when Max Kepler's double off Mitch Keller — the biggest swing of that half-inning at plus-19.5 percent win probability — helped the Diamondbacks plate two runs. Pittsburgh answered with one in the bottom of the sixth and added another in the eighth on Bryan Reynolds' double off Jonathan Loáisiga, a plus-18.6 percent swing that knotted the game at two and set the stage for extras.

The tenth inning proved decisive and chaotic in quick succession. Arizona appeared to gain significant ground when a fielding error on Geraldo Perdomo's plate appearance off Mason Montgomery shifted win probability by plus-22.4 percent in the Diamondbacks' favor, but Gabriel Moreno's strikeout against the same pitcher swung things back minus-18.0 percent, and Arizona could not capitalize. Pittsburgh then ended matters immediately in the bottom half when Rodríguez singled home the winning run for a plus-29.5 percent win probability swing.

Brandon Lowe led all position players by WPA at plus-33.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Kepler finished at plus-25.0 percent and Rodríguez at plus-23.3 percent to round out the top three offensive contributors. On the mound, Pittsburgh's bullpen shouldered much of the credit, with Juan Morillo posting a plus-16.8 percent WPA, Yohan Ramírez adding plus-16.0 percent, and Gregory Soto contributing plus-13.5 percent as the Pirates held on for the extra-innings victory.