Atlanta Braves at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| NYM | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - | 14 | 19 | 0 |
The Story
The New York Mets handed the Atlanta Braves a lopsided 14-3 defeat at Citi Field on July 27, 2026, turning what opened as a fairly competitive game into a rout over the final four innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving the Mets just a 38 percent chance of winning at home, but by game's end that figure had climbed to 100 percent as New York piled up 19 hits without committing an error.
The game's decisive sequence unfolded through a series of home runs that progressively shifted control. Francisco Lindor struck first in the bottom of the third against Martín Pérez, a blast that moved the win probability needle by 16.2 percent in New York's favor. Atlanta briefly answered in the top of the fourth when Ozzie Albies connected off Zac Thornton for a home run worth 17.3 percent in win probability for the Braves, pulling them within a run and briefly tightening the contest. The Mets responded in the sixth when Marcus Semien launched a home run off Connor Thomas, the single biggest win-probability swing of the game at plus 20.3 percent, effectively breaking Atlanta's back. New York then poured on four runs in the seventh and five more in the eighth to close out the blowout. Two plays in the fifth inning illustrated how quickly momentum dissolved for both clubs: Jared Young's strikeout against Pérez cost the Mets 9.1 percent in win probability, and Ronald Acuña Jr.'s double play off Thornton drained 6.7 percent from Atlanta's ledger.
Among individual performers, Marcus Semien led all batters with a WPA of plus 19.3 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.7, while Francisco Lindor posted the highest RE24 of any batter at plus 5.5 to go alongside his plus 15.8 percent WPA. Ozzie Albies contributed plus 15.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.3 for Atlanta, though his efforts were ultimately overwhelmed by the Mets' offense. On the mound, Zac Thornton was the standout with a plus 15.0 percent WPA, while Huascar Brazobán added plus 3.6 percent in relief. The DiamondIQ model leans toward the Mets as the clear beneficiary of the night's statistical narrative, given the volume of high-leverage contributions across their lineup.