MLB Recap · July 25, 2026

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

KC3
Final
DET2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
KC010000101370
DET010100000281

The Story

The Kansas City Royals took the series game at Comerica Park on July 25, 2026, defeating the Detroit Tigers 3-2 in a tightly contested affair that the DiamondIQ model had initially estimated the Tigers would win with a 60 percent pre-game home win probability. The Royals used a pair of late home runs to erase a one-run deficit and close out a game that remained in genuine doubt deep into the ninth inning.

The single most consequential moment of the contest arrived in the top of the ninth, when Nick Loftin connected on a solo home run off Jacob Waguespack, a swing that shifted win probability by 38.4 percentage points in Kansas City's favor and proved to be the decisive blow. Loftin finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-29.6 percent, paired with a RE24 of plus-0.2. The Royals had already shown their home-run capability in the seventh inning, when Salvador Perez hit a solo shot off Kyle Finnegan worth a 15.6 percentage-point win-probability swing to tie the game at two. Detroit had briefly held a lead courtesy of a second-inning run and a fourth-inning run, but the Tigers' offense went quiet at the moments that mattered most.

The bottom of the ninth became a tense sequence for Detroit against Alex Lange. Zach McKinstry reached on a single that represented a 23.2 percentage-point swing toward the Tigers, briefly reigniting the threat, but Matt Vierling's strikeout erased 25.9 points of win probability from Detroit's side, and Spencer Torkelson's pop out, despite carrying a plus-19.0 WPA mark from his team's perspective in the play's context, ultimately ended the rally. On the mound, Michael Wacha led Kansas City's pitching staff with a WPA of plus-19.4 percent, while Casey Mize contributed plus-16.9 percent on the Detroit side in a losing effort. The Royals finished with a clean seven hits and no errors, while Detroit's lone error contributed to a final scoreline that sealed a 3-2 Kansas City victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025KC bats firstFinalDET win %KC win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 60.1% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nick Loftin Home Run
Top 9th · off Jacob Waguespack
+38.4%
Matt Vierling Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Alex Lange
-25.9%
Zach McKinstry Single
Bot 9th · off Alex Lange
+23.2%
Spencer Torkelson Pop Out
Bot 9th · off Alex Lange
+19.0%
Salvador Perez Home Run
Top 7th · off Kyle Finnegan
+15.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Nick Loftin+29.6%+0.2 RE24
Spencer Torkelson+19.0%-0.4 RE24
Riley Greene+17.8%+1.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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