MLB Recap · July 25, 2026

Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

ATL2
Final
BAL3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
ATL000001010262
BAL001010001370

The Story

The Baltimore Orioles walked off the Atlanta Braves 3-2 on July 25, 2026, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in a game that remained tightly contested deep into the ninth inning before Baltimore delivered the decisive blow. The DiamondIQ model entered the game estimating a 44 percent home win probability for Baltimore, a figure that climbed to 100 percent by the final out as the Orioles executed when it mattered most.

The game's most consequential sequence unfolded in the bottom of the ninth against Braves reliever Didier Fuentes. Jackson Holliday opened the inning with a double that shifted win probability by 12.0 percentage points, setting the stage for Dylan Beavers, whose walk-off single produced the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus-35.9 percent. Beavers finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-34.7 with a RE24 of plus-1.1. Earlier, Gunnar Henderson had provided Baltimore's first offensive jolt with a fifth-inning home run off Bryce Elder worth plus-11.7 percent in win probability. Atlanta had answered with Ozzie Albies connecting for a home run in the top of the eighth off Rico Garcia, a swing worth plus-18.6 percent that briefly made the DiamondIQ model's estimate a near even contest, and Michael Harris II had delivered a key double in the sixth off Brandon Young worth plus-10.9 percent.

On the pitching side, Brandon Young led Baltimore's staff with a WPA of plus-24.8, followed by Yennier Cano at plus-13.5 and Victor Mederos at plus-10.7, a collective effort that held Atlanta to two runs on six hits while committing no errors. The Braves finished with two errors of their own, miscues that proved costly in a one-run game decided in the final at-bat.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025ATL bats firstFinalBAL win %ATL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 43.9% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Dylan Beavers Single
Bot 9th · off Didier Fuentes
+35.9%
Ozzie Albies Home Run
Top 8th · off Rico Garcia
+18.6%
Jackson Holliday Double
Bot 9th · off Didier Fuentes
+12.0%
Gunnar Henderson Home Run
Bot 5th · off Bryce Elder
+11.7%
Top 6th · off Brandon Young
+10.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Dylan Beavers+34.7%+1.1 RE24
Jackson Holliday+14.6%+0.8 RE24
Ozzie Albies+12.3%+0.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →