Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 4-2 at Rogers Centre on July 22, 2026, holding the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability of 41% to zero by game's end. The Rays scored all four of their runs in just two innings — a single tally in the second and a three-run burst in the sixth — while the Blue Jays managed only a first-inning run and a seventh-inning home run in a largely quiet offensive contest.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the sixth, where Tampa Bay broke the game open against Toronto's bullpen. Victor Mesa Jr. delivered a single off Jeff Hoffman that carried the game's second-highest win-probability swing at plus 11.7 percent, and Yandy Díaz reached on a field error off Hoffman worth plus 8.3 percent. Ben Williamson then drew a walk off Mason Fluharty that added another 9.7 percent to Tampa Bay's win probability, collectively turning a close game into a comfortable Rays lead. Alejandro Kirk provided the only moment of Blue Jays life in the bottom of the seventh, connecting on a home run off Cam Booser worth plus 10.9 percent from Toronto's perspective, but it proved too little. A Luis Urías flyout to end the ninth inning in Tampa Bay's favor registered the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus 14.4 percent, underscoring how Tampa Bay's pitching kept Toronto from mounting any serious late threat.

On the individual ledger, Victor Mesa Jr. led all batters with a plus 15.2 percent WPA and plus 1.9 RE24, making him the game's most impactful offensive contributor. On the mound, Spencer Miles led all pitchers with a plus 18.6 percent WPA, followed closely by Griffin Jax at plus 18.4 percent and Kevin Kelly at plus 15.1 percent, a trio that collectively neutralized a Toronto lineup that managed only four hits on the evening.