Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles held the Boston Red Sox to a single run on the way to a 5-1 victory at Fenway Park on July 22, 2026, swinging the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston win from 57 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. Baltimore did its most decisive damage in the opening frame, plating four runs in the top of the first inning against Brayan Bello to seize immediate control of the game. The Orioles finished with nine hits and committed no errors, while Boston managed just five hits and could not manufacture any sustained pressure against the Baltimore pitching staff.

The biggest single-play probability shifts of the night worked almost entirely against Boston. Jarren Duran's lineout to end the bottom of the second erased 11.9 percent from the Red Sox's win probability, the largest swing of the game, and Wilyer Abreu's strikeout to close the bottom of the first had already cost Boston 10.4 percent. On the Baltimore side, Chadwick Tromp's groundout in the top of the first added 9.3 percent to the Orioles' probability as that first-inning frame unfolded, and Gunnar Henderson's ground-rule double play in the top of the second contributed a further 8.4 percent, reflecting how Baltimore was efficiently advancing the game from a position of strength. Boston's only meaningful positive swing came in the fourth, when Masataka Yoshida's single added 6.8 percent, but the deficit was already too steep for it to matter.

Individually, Gunnar Henderson led all position players with a WPA of plus-13.8 percent, underscoring his impact across the game's early critical moments, while Chadwick Tromp contributed plus-7.2 percent and Willson Contreras added plus-4.4 percent. On the mound, Kyle Bradish was the story, posting a WPA of plus-37.5 percent — by far the most dominant pitching performance of the game — as he repeatedly suppressed Boston's lineup in high-leverage situations. Yennier Cano added plus-3.6 percent in relief, and Andrew Kittredge contributed plus-1.2 percent to close things out. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Baltimore's performance reflecting a thoroughly managed game from first pitch through the final inning.