MLB Recap · July 21, 2026

San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

SF2
Final
KC3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SF000020000250
KC00100200-381

The Story

Kansas City held off San Francisco 3-2 at Kauffman Stadium on July 21, 2026, in a tightly contested game that saw the Royals overcome a two-run deficit in the fifth inning and ultimately secure the win with a decisive sixth-inning rally. The DiamondIQ model opened with Kansas City as a modest 54 percent favorite, but by the final out that estimate had climbed to 100 percent, reflecting just how completely the Royals locked down the game in its final stages.

The biggest swings of the contest came in back-to-back innings. In the top of the fifth, San Francisco threatened off Luinder Avila, with Drew Gilbert's single generating an 11.2 percent win-probability shift and Heliot Ramos following with a fielders choice that added another 13.7 percent in the Giants' favor, accounting for both of San Francisco's runs. Kansas City had briefly taken a 1-0 lead in the third when Carter Jensen hit a home run off Tyler Mahle, a swing worth 10.9 percent in win probability. The Royals reclaimed control in the bottom of the sixth, when Vinnie Pasquantino singled off Sam Hentges for a 13.4 percent swing and Nick Loftin followed with a single off Keaton Winn that added another 9.9 percent, the two hits combining to put Kansas City ahead for good.

Pasquantino led all batters with a 15.3 percent WPA and a 1.1 RE24, while Nick Loftin contributed 10.0 percent WPA and Jung Hoo Lee added 11.2 percent for the Giants in a losing effort. Out of the bullpen, Kansas City's relievers were dominant late, with Alex Lange posting a 15.2 percent WPA, Matt Strahm adding 11.3 percent, and John Schreiber contributing 10.8 percent as the trio collectively shut the door on any San Francisco comeback and preserved the one-run victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SF bats firstFinalKC win %SF win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 53.6% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Heliot Ramos Fielders Choice
Top 5th · off Luinder Avila
+13.7%
Bot 6th · off Sam Hentges
+13.4%
Drew Gilbert Single
Top 5th · off Luinder Avila
+11.2%
Carter Jensen Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Tyler Mahle
+10.9%
Nick Loftin Single
Bot 6th · off Keaton Winn
+9.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Vinnie Pasquantino+15.3%+1.1 RE24
Jung Hoo Lee+11.2%+0.3 RE24
Nick Loftin+10.0%+0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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