Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers held off the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 at Citizens Bank Park on July 21, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Phillies win beginning at 54 percent pre-game and ultimately falling to zero. The decisive blow came in the top of the fourth inning, when Max Muncy connected on a two-run home run off Zack Wheeler, a swing that shifted win probability 19.8 percent in the Dodgers' favor and stood as the difference-maker for the remainder of the night. Los Angeles would not score again, leaving those two runs to carry the full weight of the outcome.

The Phillies made the final innings uncomfortable for the Dodgers, staging a genuine threat in the ninth against closer Tanner Scott. Alec Bohm opened the inning with a single that added 12.3 percent to Philadelphia's win probability, and J.T. Realmuto followed with a double that represented the single largest probability swing of the game, adding 31.1 percent and bringing the tying run to third. The rally ultimately ended when Brandon Marsh grounded into a double play, a sequence that swung 14.8 percent back toward Los Angeles and closed out the game.

Among individual performers, Justin Wrobleski led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-24.6 percent, anchoring the Dodgers' effort through the middle innings, while Wheeler posted a plus-15.5 percent WPA despite surrendering the Muncy home run. On the offensive side, Realmuto finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-20.3 percent, followed closely by Bohm at plus-18.8 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.5, though neither was able to translate Philadelphia's late pressure into the tying run.