Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 7-6 at Fenway Park on July 18, 2026, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston win climb from 47% before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The contest was defined by a volatile middle-to-late innings stretch, with Tampa Bay briefly seizing control in the fourth before Boston answered decisively in the seventh. The Rays entered the game having scored twice in the second and then put up three more runs in the fourth, the biggest swing of that frame coming on Victor Mesa Jr.'s home run off Patrick Sandoval, which shifted win probability 11.6 points in Tampa Bay's favor. Boston countered with a run in the third, but the game's decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the seventh, when Ceddanne Rafaela's double off Cole Sulser moved the needle 11.6 percentage points, and Wilyer Abreu followed with a home run off Garrett Cleavinger that swung win probability by 36.6 points — the single largest play of the game — capping a four-run inning that gave Boston a lead it would not relinquish.

Abreu was the standout performer of the night, finishing with a WPA of plus 44.3% and an RE24 of plus 2.9, a figure that reflects how thoroughly his contributions reshaped the game's run-expectancy landscape. Jahmai Jones also made an early impact with a second-inning home run off Ian Seymour worth plus 14.2% in win probability, while Jarren Duran added plus 13.7% WPA despite a modest RE24 of plus 0.2. On the pitching side, Aroldis Chapman secured the ninth by inducing a groundout from Jonny DeLuca that cost Tampa Bay 13.5 points of win probability, and Chapman finished as the top reliever by WPA at plus 15.2%. Kevin Kelly and Garrett Whitlock also contributed meaningfully out of the bullpen at plus 12.5% and plus 10.8% respectively, helping Boston hold a Rays lineup that had collected ten hits on the night despite Tampa Bay's lone error complicating matters further. The Red Sox managed only six hits but converted enough of their opportunities to survive in a game the DiamondIQ model ultimately saw as a near-even matchup before the first pitch.