San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
The Story
The Seattle Mariners walked off the San Francisco Giants 4-3 in ten innings at T-Mobile Park on July 18, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a pre-game 61 percent home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Seattle trailed entering the seventh inning but erased a two-run Giants advantage in dramatic fashion, then secured the win with a manufactured run in the tenth.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the seventh, when Cole Young launched a home run off Logan Webb that swung win probability by 39.2 percentage points, the single largest play of the game and the moment the contest fundamentally shifted. San Francisco had built a 3-0 lead through six innings on the strength of a three-run sixth, but Young's blast capped a three-run seventh that tied the game and rendered that cushion meaningless. The Giants had a chance to reclaim momentum in the eighth, but Josh Naylor grounded out with runners on base off Keaton Winn, a play that cost San Francisco 14.3 percentage points of win probability. Mitch Garver's strikeout to end the ninth actually added 14.0 percentage points for Seattle, preserving the tie and setting up the tenth. There, with the automatic runner in play, Colt Emerson laid down a sacrifice bunt off Dylan Smith for a 19.5-point swing, and Julio Rodriguez followed with a walk-off sacrifice fly worth another 16.9 points to end it.
Cole Young finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-34.9 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.6, his home run the undeniable turning point. On the mound, Andrés Muñoz led Seattle's relievers with plus-13.5 percent WPA, followed by Eduard Bazardo at plus-10.6 and Keaton Winn at plus-9.3. Rafael Devers contributed plus-18.0 percent WPA for San Francisco in a losing effort, but the Giants' inability to hold their lead in the late innings ultimately proved decisive as the model leaned toward Seattle from the seventh inning on and never wavered.