Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers walked off the Miami Marlins 2-1 in ten innings on July 17, 2026, at American Family Field, with Garrett Mitchell delivering the game-winning single in the bottom of the tenth off Lake Bachar to close out the contest. That hit carried the largest single-play win-probability swing of the game at plus 42.9 percent according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, pushing Milwaukee's chances from a competitive situation to a certainty and capping a tightly contested extra-inning affair. The DiamondIQ model had opened the night favoring Milwaukee at 63 percent and closed at 100 percent following Mitchell's decisive blow, finishing as the top offensive performer with a WPA of plus 34.2 percent and an RE24 of plus 0.9.

The only regulation scoring came in the fifth inning, when the two clubs exchanged home runs in a back-and-forth sequence that defined the game's competitive center. Joey Ortiz gave Milwaukee the lead with a home run off Sandy Alcantara worth plus 13.4 percent in win probability, but Griffin Conine answered in the top of the fifth with a solo shot off Logan Henderson that shifted the balance plus 12.7 percent in Miami's favor, knotting the game at one and keeping the Marlins alive through nine innings. Conine finished as the second-leading offensive performer by WPA at plus 14.1 percent with an RE24 of plus 0.9, while Ortiz contributed plus 9.2 percent WPA and plus 0.5 RE24. Miami's best chances to break through in the late innings were extinguished by costly outs, including Liam Hicks grounding into a double play in the eighth off Abner Uribe at minus 11.1 percent WPA, and Heriberto Hernandez lining out in the ninth off Trevor Megill at minus 10.9 percent.

On the pitching side, Sandy Alcantara led all pitchers by WPA at plus 22.3 percent despite surrendering the Ortiz home run, an indication that he limited damage across his innings and kept Miami in position to compete. Trevor Megill added plus 13.5 percent WPA with his work in the ninth, and Michael Petersen contributed plus 10.9 percent WPA in his portion of the outing for Milwaukee as the Brewers' bullpen ultimately preserved the victory into extras.