MLB Recap · July 12, 2026

Boston Red Sox at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

BOS3
Final
NYM2

Line Score

Team12345678910RHE
BOS0000000021340
NYM1000010000262

The Story

The Boston Red Sox defeated the New York Mets 3-2 in ten innings at Citi Field on July 12, 2026, overcoming a one-run deficit and completing the comeback in extra innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win stood at 46% before first pitch, and the game remained close throughout, with New York holding a 2-1 lead entering the ninth before Boston's late-inning push shifted control decisively away from the Mets.

The pivotal sequence came in the top of the ninth against Devin Williams, where the game swung wildly in both directions within the same half-inning. Masataka Yoshida grounded into a double play that shifted win probability by minus 34.7 points against Boston, the single most damaging play of the night by WPA. But the Red Sox recovered immediately, as Andruw Monasterio drew a walk that added 19.2 points of win probability, and Jarren Duran followed with a single worth plus 27.0 points, tying or threatening to tie the game and setting the stage for Boston to take the lead into extras. In the tenth, with a runner on base under ghost-runner rules, Ceddanne Rafaela's flyout against Brooks Raley added 23.1 points of win probability for Boston by advancing the inning, before the Red Sox pushed across what proved to be the decisive run. On the Mets side, Bo Bichette's groundout to end the bottom of the tenth against Garrett Whitlock added 31.6 points of win probability for Boston, sealing the result.

Among the night's standout performers, Zach Thornton led all pitchers with a plus 41.4% WPA, the highest single-game contribution on either side, while Luke Weaver added 8.1 points and Brayan Bello contributed 1.8 points to Boston's pitching effort. Offensively, Monasterio finished with a plus 24.7% WPA and a positive 1.2 RE24, making him the most impactful Red Sox position player by run-environment contribution. The Mets committed two errors on the night, and their six hits were ultimately not enough to hold off a Boston club that scored all three of its runs in the final two innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalNYM win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 46.2% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Masataka Yoshida Double Play
Top 9th · off Devin Williams
-34.7%
Bo Bichette Groundout
Bot 10th · off Garrett Whitlock
+31.6%
Jarren Duran Single
Top 9th · off Devin Williams
+27.0%
Ceddanne Rafaela Flyout
Top 10th · off Brooks Raley
+23.1%
Top 9th · off Devin Williams
+19.2%

Top Batters by WPA

Bo Bichette+31.6%-0.1 RE24
Andruw Monasterio+24.7%+1.2 RE24
Ceddanne Rafaela+22.5%-0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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