Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves held on to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals 4-3 at Busch Stadium on July 12, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically in the ninth inning. The Braves entered with a run in the second, added another in the fourth on a Drake Baldwin single off Dustin May that swung win probability 11.6 points in Atlanta's favor, and pushed their lead to 3-1 with a sixth-inning run off JoJo Romero. St. Louis rallied in the bottom of the sixth, where a José Fermín single off Didier Fuentes produced a 21.3-point win-probability swing for the Cardinals and helped fuel a two-run frame that knotted the score at 3-3, briefly shifting the balance of the game toward the home side.
The ninth inning proved decisive in both directions. Mauricio Dubón reached on a Cardinals fielding error off JoJo Romero, a play that moved win probability 31.5 points in Atlanta's favor, and Ozzie Albies followed with a double that added another 11.9 points, plating the go-ahead run and giving the Braves a 4-3 edge. In the bottom half, closer Raisel Iglesias induced a strikeout of Jimmy Crooks to end the game, though the DiamondIQ model registered that out as the single largest win-probability swing of the contest at 31.6 points, reflecting how dangerous the Cardinals' situation remained until that final moment. The DiamondIQ model had set pregame home win probability at 49 percent, and St. Louis never fully escaped the margin it needed to overcome.
On the stat sheet, Jimmy Crooks led all batters by WPA at plus-27.7 despite making the final out, a reflection of how deep the Cardinals had pushed the leverage late. Dubón posted plus-25.8 WPA on the strength of his error-aided on-base appearance in the ninth, while Fermín contributed plus-12.6 WPA and a plus-1.1 RE24 off his sixth-inning single. Among pitchers, Dylan Lee led the Braves staff at plus-16.1 WPA, followed by JR Ritchie at plus-13.3 and Ryne Stanek at plus-10.6, as Atlanta's bullpen ultimately preserved the one-run margin despite St. Louis finishing with two errors on the night.