Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants defeated the Colorado Rockies 4-2 at Oracle Park on July 11, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability moving from 56% before the game to a final 100%, a shift driven almost entirely by a decisive sixth inning that put the game out of reach.
The turning point came in the bottom of the sixth, where the Giants strung together their most damaging sequence of the night against Rockies starter Kyle Freeland. Casey Schmitt delivered the biggest single play of the game, a home run that swung win probability by 21.0 percentage points in San Francisco's favor. Luis Arraez followed with a single that added another 7.2 percentage points, capping a three-run frame that effectively ended the competitive portion of the contest. The Giants had also nudged ahead in the fifth when Jesus Rodriguez doubled off Freeland for a 10.5-point win-probability swing. Colorado managed just two runs in response, including a Kyle Karros home run off JT Brubaker in the eighth that accounted for a 6.4-point swing but arrived too late to matter, and a Brett Sullivan double in the third that had represented the Rockies' best early threat at plus 6.4 points.
Schmitt finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a net WPA of plus 15.4 and a RE24 of plus 1.6, while Arraez contributed plus 10.0 WPA on the night. On the mound, Tyler Mahle was the decisive factor, posting a plus 19.0 WPA to lead all pitchers and anchor the Giants' staff through the game's critical innings. JT Brubaker added plus 5.2 WPA in relief, and Zach Agnos closed at a negligible minus 0.5, preserving the final margin cleanly.