Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians completed a quiet but decisive road win over the Miami Marlins on July 11, 2026 at loanDepot park, taking the contest 4-1 behind strong pitching and timely extra-base hitting. The DiamondIQ model had opened with Miami as the modest favorite at 56% pre-game win probability, but that advantage eroded steadily before closing at zero as Cleveland's pitching staff never allowed the Marlins to gain real footing.

The game's offensive turning points were concentrated in two innings. Steven Kwan delivered the first significant blow in the top of the fourth, his double off Eury Pérez carrying a win-probability swing of plus-17.5 points according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, part of what would be a plus-18.3% WPA night for the Cleveland leadoff man. The Guardians extended their advantage in the top of the eighth, where Patrick Bailey doubled off William Kempner for the single largest play of the game at plus-23.2%, followed by a Kahlil Watson double that added another 11.1 points of probability to Cleveland's column. Miami's only response of note came in the bottom of the seventh, when Liam Hicks singled off Shawn Armstrong for a plus-13.3% swing that briefly kept the Marlins in range, finishing as Miami's most productive offensive contribution at plus-16.2% WPA on the night.

The pitching performance that anchored the win belonged to Tanner Bibee, who led all players in win-probability contribution with a plus-35.6% WPA, the largest figure on either side and reflective of how thoroughly he controlled the Marlins lineup through his time on the mound. Franco Aleman and Cade Gibson added plus-5.2% and plus-4.2% respectively to close it out. Cleveland's 11 hits against just one Miami error told the story of a professional road effort, while Miami's seven hits and a costly miscue left them unable to manufacture the kind of rally that might have challenged the Guardians' command of the game.