Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies erased a deficit and stunned the San Francisco Giants 4-3 at Oracle Park on July 10, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected in stark terms: San Francisco entered with a 55 percent pre-game win probability that fell to zero by the final out. The Giants had scratched out single runs in the second and seventh innings to carry a 2-1 lead into the ninth, but a three-run Colorado rally off Caleb Kilian turned the game on its head in a matter of plate appearances.

The decisive sequence in the top of the ninth was the most consequential stretch of the night by a wide margin. Kyle Karros opened the inning with a single off Kilian that swung win probability 27.6 percent in Colorado's favor, the single largest play of the game. Troy Johnston followed with a walk that added another 15.2 percent, and Jake McCarthy then delivered a single worth 15.1 percent, continuing a collapse for Kilian that the Rockies exploited without pause. When San Francisco mounted a last-ditch answer in the bottom of the ninth, Bryce Eldridge's groundout with runners on represented an 11.0 percent swing back toward Colorado, but Juan Mejia closed the door. Rafael Devers had given the Giants life in the seventh with a run-scoring single off Jimmy Herget worth 11.7 percent, briefly pushing San Francisco's position toward comfort.

Among individuals, Karros finished as the game's most impactful offensive player at plus 30.0 percent WPA, while McCarthy was close behind at plus 23.4 percent with a team-best 1.0 RE24. Johnston contributed a plus 15.2 percent WPA line despite reaching solely on the walk. On the pitching side, Dylan Smith led all hurlers at plus 27.2 percent WPA, with Sam Hentges adding 14.8 percent and Tanner Gordon contributing 12.3 percent as Colorado's staff held a powerful Giants lineup to three runs on eleven hits and preserved what had looked earlier in the evening like an unlikely road victory.