Boston Red Sox at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox defeated the New York Mets 6-2 at Citi Field on July 10, 2026, handing New York a loss that erased what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 48 percent pre-game home win probability. Boston scored twice in the first inning, absorbed a Mets run in the third, and kept the game close until a decisive seventh-inning surge pushed the lead out of reach. The Red Sox finished with 11 hits to New York's 10, but Boston converted its opportunities far more efficiently.

The swing play of the night came in the top of the seventh, when Anthony Seigler connected on a home run off A.J. Minter that shifted win probability 18.9 percentage points in Boston's favor. New York's best chances to claw back were repeatedly extinguished by self-inflicted damage: Carson Benge grounded into a double play in the bottom of the sixth off Sonny Gray, costing the Mets 11.9 percentage points of win probability, and Francisco Alvarez followed with a similar fate in the seventh against Tyron Guerrero, shedding another 11.1 points. Wilyer Abreu had also extended Boston's grip in the fifth with a double off Nolan McLean worth 8.6 percentage points, though a Romy Gonzalez strikeout in the same frame trimmed 8.1 points back.

Seigler led all position players with a WPA of plus-24.8 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.2, while Abreu contributed plus-11.7 percent WPA and a team-best RE24 of plus-2.7. On the mound, Sonny Gray was the clear anchor, posting a plus-29.7 percent WPA, with Nolan McLean adding plus-16.2 and Tyron Guerrero contributing plus-6.3 in relief. The model's estimate settled at zero percent for New York by the final out, reflecting a Boston performance that was clean enough in the decisive innings to leave the Mets with no viable path back.