New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 14 | 0 |
| TB | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The New York Yankees handed the Tampa Bay Rays a 12-4 defeat at Tropicana Field on July 9, 2026, a result that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Tampa Bay win from 59 percent before first pitch to zero percent by the final out. The Yankees scattered their damage across multiple innings, scoring six times in the third, three more in the sixth, and adding single runs in the fourth, seventh, and eighth to build an insurmountable lead. The Rays finished with an error and allowed 14 hits over the course of a long evening for Tampa Bay pitching.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the third inning, when Ben Rice connected on a home run off Drew Rasmussen that swung win probability 16.7 percent in New York's favor, the single largest play of the game. Rice finished as the game's top performer by both metrics, posting a WPA of plus-19.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.4, making him the clear engine of the Yankee offensive outburst. Austin Wells added to the damage in the fourth with a home run off Cam Booser that moved the needle another 7.4 percent, and Wells ended the night with a WPA of plus-13.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.6. The Rays generated some momentum of their own in the bottom of the third, where Victor Mesa Jr. doubled off Ryan Yarbrough for a 7.2 percent swing and Jonathan Aranda singled off Jake Bird for 7.1 percent, but those rallies proved insufficient to offset New York's production.
On the mound, Brent Headrick was the most impactful Yankees pitcher by WPA at plus-8.6 percent, steadying New York during Tampa Bay's only serious threats. Paul Blackburn contributed a plus-1.0 percent WPA in relief, while Tim Hill ended at flat. Despite Chandler Simpson's triple off Yarbrough in the bottom of the fourth adding 6.9 percent for Tampa Bay, the Rays could never string together enough offense to threaten the lead the Yankees had built. The DiamondIQ model leaned toward Tampa Bay entering the game, but the third-inning eruption anchored by Rice rendered that pre-game lean irrelevant well before the final innings were played.