Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks held off the San Diego Padres 3-1 at Petco Park on July 9, 2026, completing the victory with a DiamondIQ model win probability that opened at 46% for Arizona before the first pitch and closed at 100% by the final out. The outcome turned largely on the middle innings, where the D-backs built a lead they never relinquished. Nolan Arenado delivered the most consequential offensive blow, a sixth-inning home run off Yuki Matsui that swung win probability 13.5 points in Arizona's favor and accounted for the largest positive batting play of the game. Geraldo Perdomo had already set the tone in the fifth, his single off Griffin Canning adding 11.5 percentage points to Arizona's win probability. San Diego's path back into the game was repeatedly blocked by its own bats, as Jake Cronenworth grounded into a double play in the fourth and Miguel Andujar did the same in the fifth, those two plays alone costing the Padres a combined 20.5 points of win probability against Merrill Kelly.

Kelly was the game's dominant individual performer, generating 29.6% WPA over his outing as the Padres repeatedly stranded opportunities on the basepaths. His ability to induce those back-to-back double plays in the fourth and fifth innings effectively closed the door on San Diego's most credible scoring threats. Kevin Ginkel contributed a further 13.3% WPA out of the bullpen, and Paul Sewald punctuated the evening by striking out Xander Bogaerts to end the ninth, a play that registered plus-14.4% for Arizona given it secured the final out with the game still technically live on the scoreboard. Among position players, Arenado led all batters at plus-19.0% WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, with Perdomo close behind at plus-9.0% WPA. The D-backs finished with eight hits and committed no errors, while San Diego managed just three hits in a 3-1 defeat on its home field.