Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Chicago Cubs 3-2 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 9, 2026, handing Chicago a tight loss in a game that produced just six combined extra-base hits and saw Baltimore out-hit only 3-to-9 while committing two errors. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Baltimore a 44 percent chance of winning at home, and that probability climbed to 100 percent by the final out.

Chicago appeared to seize control in the sixth inning when Seiya Suzuki connected on a home run off Trevor Rogers, a swing worth plus 13.8 percent in win probability that gave the Cubs their first lead of the game. Suzuki extended his influence into the eighth, adding a double off Tyler Wells worth another plus 12.4 percent, and Pete Crow-Armstrong followed with a double of his own off Wells worth plus 11.2 percent, pushing Chicago ahead 2-1 and tightening the Cubs' grip on the contest. Baltimore answered immediately in the bottom of the eighth, however, when Jeremiah Jackson laced a double off Ryan Rolison that swung win probability by plus 29.5 percent, the single largest play of the game, delivering two runs and a 3-2 lead Baltimore would not relinquish. A fielding error in the top of the ninth off Andrew Kittredge represented a plus 10.6 percent swing for the Cubs but ultimately went for naught.

In terms of individual impact, Suzuki finished as Chicago's most consequential bat with a combined plus 23.4 percent WPA and plus 1.9 RE24, while Jackson was the game's decisive offensive force at plus 29.5 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24 for Baltimore. Pete Alonso contributed plus 16.4 percent WPA and plus 0.8 RE24 in support. On the mound, Trevor Rogers paced Baltimore's pitching staff at plus 19.1 percent WPA, with Andrew Kittredge adding plus 15.2 percent and Gavin Hollowell contributing plus 10.8 percent as the Orioles held on for a well-earned one-run victory.