Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies stunned the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on July 7, 2026, completing a rally that erased what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 76 percent pre-game home win probability for Los Angeles. The Dodgers held a 3-1 lead entering the eighth inning and appeared in control through seven frames, but Colorado sent three runs across in the top of the eighth to seize the lead for good. The decisive sequence began when Jake McCarthy laid down a sacrifice bunt off Jack Dreyer, a play that shifted win probability 19.5 points in Colorado's favor, and culminated with Tyler Freeman reaching on a fielder's choice off Will Klein that swung the model's estimate another 24.5 points toward the Rockies, the single largest probability move of the game.

Colorado's bullpen then protected the 4-3 advantage through a tense ninth. Jordan Romano navigated a harrowing frame in which Teoscar Hernandez drew a walk that moved the model 17.5 points back toward Los Angeles, but Shohei Ohtani popped out to push the estimate 17.0 points the other way, and Freddie Freeman's strikeout to end the game represented an 18.8-point swing that sealed the upset. Tyler Freeman finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-27.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Alex Freeland contributed plus-24.0 percent WPA and a matching RE24 of plus-1.6. McCarthy added plus-21.0 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24. On the pitching side, Juan Mejia led Colorado's staff with plus-25.9 percent WPA, supported by Justin Wrobleski at plus-14.7 percent, as the Rockies completed the improbable road victory against a Dodgers team the model had so heavily favored before first pitch.