New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 5-1 at Tropicana Field on July 6, 2026, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave the home side a 58% chance of winning. The game was decided in the fifth inning, when the Yankees generated all three of their early runs. The defining moment came from José Caballero, whose home run off Griffin Jax shifted win probability by 26.5 percentage points in New York's favor, effectively breaking the game open. A walk issued to Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the same frame added another 4.6 percentage points to the Yankees' ledger, compounding the damage Jax absorbed before the inning closed.

Caballero returned in the eighth with another home run, this one off Chris Roycroft, adding 9.4 percentage points and extending the lead to 4-1. Tampa Bay's most meaningful response came in the bottom of the fifth, when Richie Palacios singled off Cam Schlittler to drive in a run and shift win probability 9.2 points toward the Rays, but it was the only real dent the home club managed. A Cedric Mullins flyout in the seventh cost the Rays 4.3 percentage points, extinguishing a potential rally. The Yankees tacked on a final run in the ninth to set the final margin.

Caballero finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-33.4% and a RE24 of plus-3.1 across his two home runs. On the pitching side, Cam Schlittler led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-36.9% despite surrendering the Palacios run, holding the Rays at bay across multiple frames and limiting a game that could have tightened considerably. Cole Sulser and Casey Legumina contributed plus-4.4% and plus-4.2% respectively in support, as New York's bullpen closed out Tampa Bay with little resistance.