New York Mets at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets survived a wild nine-inning contest at Truist Park on July 5, 2026, defeating the Atlanta Braves 10-9 in a game that was far more complicated than the final score suggests. The DiamondIQ model entered the night heavily favoring Atlanta at 71% pre-game home win probability, but that estimate collapsed to 0% by game's end as the Mets overcame a chaotic scoring pattern that saw both teams combine for 10 runs across just two innings — the second and the ninth — while the middle six frames remained scoreless.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the ninth, where Atlanta mounted a six-run rally that nearly erased a 10-3 Mets lead, turning what appeared to be a comfortable outcome into a genuine crisis. The single biggest swing of the entire game came on Dominic Smith's strikeout against Devin Williams, a moment that added 19.0% win probability to New York's ledger and effectively sealed the result. Mauricio Dubón's single off Williams earlier in that frame had provided Atlanta with a 8.0% boost in win probability, illustrating how tightly contested the late innings became. On the Braves' side, the bottom of the second proved damaging in a different direction, as Ozzie Albies grounded out against Nolan McLean in a spot that cost Atlanta 13.1% in win probability, a missed opportunity that loomed large given how close the final margin turned out to be.

Among the night's standout performers, Nolan McLean led all pitchers with a remarkable +26.9% WPA contribution, anchoring the Mets' staff through the middle innings when the scoreboard went quiet. Brooks Raley added +15.8% and Luke Weaver contributed +13.3%, forming a bullpen trio that largely held Atlanta's offense in check until that turbulent ninth. At the plate, Dominic Smith posted the highest WPA among batters at +12.9%, followed by Tyrone Taylor at +7.6% and Mauricio Dubón at +7.1%, though Dubón's contribution came in a losing effort for Atlanta's late charge.