San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the San Francisco Giants 7-6 on July 5, 2026 at Coors Field, rallying from a late deficit to hand San Francisco the loss. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Colorado holding a 53 percent pre-game win probability, and it climbed to 100 percent by the final out. The Giants had built a lead on the strength of a big fifth inning, with Rafael Devers and Casey Schmitt both going deep off Tanner Gordon, adding 13.0 and 12.4 percentage points of win probability respectively. Devers had also homered off Gordon in the fourth, a swing worth 10.4 percentage points, giving San Francisco what looked like a commanding position heading into the late innings.

Colorado erased it all in the bottom of the eighth. With the Rockies trailing and facing Dylan Smith, Kyle Karros launched a home run that swung win probability by 47.7 percentage points in a single stroke, the decisive blow of the contest. Karros finished as the game's most impactful player by a wide margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus 49.8 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.7. Drew Gilbert was the other standout on the Colorado side, contributing a WPA of plus 18.7 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.8. A Luis Arraez double-play ball off Brennan Bernardino in the sixth had cost San Francisco 11.3 percentage points of win probability, an earlier sign that the Giants were leaving opportunities on the table.

On the pitching side, Jordan Romano led Colorado's staff with a WPA of plus 15.2 percent, followed closely by Erik Miller at plus 14.7 percent, as the two combined to preserve the Rockies' late advantage. Sam Hentges added plus 5.4 percent in his own right. The Giants finished with a 10-hit, one-error performance that was ultimately undone by Karros's eighth-inning blow, and the model leans toward crediting Colorado's bullpen and that single swing as the turning point that flipped a difficult road situation into a Rockies victory.