MLB Recap · July 5, 2026

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

MIL3
Final
AZ2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIL000000300371
AZ100000100270

The Story

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-2 on July 5, 2026, at Chase Field, with all of the game's scoring compressed into a decisive seventh inning and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home victory falling from 41% before first pitch to 0% at the final out.

The pivotal sequence arrived in the top of the seventh against Eduardo Rodriguez. Jake Bauers delivered the key blow, a home run that shifted win probability 24.8 points in Milwaukee's favor and gave the Brewers the lead they would not relinquish. Joey Ortiz followed with a single off Kevin Ginkel that added another 12.3 points of win probability, extending the advantage to 3-1 after Arizona had plated a run of its own in the frame. The Diamondbacks' best opportunity to answer came in the bottom of the eighth, but Pavin Smith grounded into a double play off Abner Uribe, a swing of negative 27.3 points in win probability that effectively ended Arizona's realistic path back into the game.

Abner Uribe was Milwaukee's most valuable performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a WPA of plus 35.1, largely on the strength of that pivotal double play. Corbin Carroll led Arizona's individual numbers at plus 32.1 WPA despite the loss, a figure driven primarily by his ninth-inning flyout off Trevor Megill that registered plus 27.0 in win probability, reflecting how deep into the count and situation that at-bat extended before the Brewers closed it out. Bauers finished at plus 18.6 WPA with an RE24 of plus 0.9, while Ortiz added plus 7.1 WPA. Grant Anderson and Taylor Clarke contributed plus 9.1 and plus 7.4 WPA respectively in support of Uribe as Milwaukee held on for the final scoreline of 3-2.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIL bats firstFinalAZ win %MIL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 40.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Pavin Smith Double Play
Bot 8th · off Abner Uribe
-27.3%
Corbin Carroll Flyout
Bot 9th · off Trevor Megill
+27.0%
Jake Bauers Home Run
Top 7th · off Eduardo Rodriguez
+24.8%
Joey Ortiz Single
Top 7th · off Kevin Ginkel
+12.3%
Geraldo Perdomo Pop Out
Bot 9th · off Trevor Megill
-10.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Corbin Carroll+32.1%+0.4 RE24
Jake Bauers+18.6%+0.9 RE24
Joey Ortiz+7.1%+0.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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