Miami Marlins at Athletics: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handed the Athletics a 7-2 defeat on July 4, 2026, at Sutter Health Park, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected clearly as Oakland's pre-game win probability of 47 percent collapsed to zero by the final out. Miami did the bulk of its damage early, sending seven runs across on 13 hits while the Athletics managed just two runs on eight hits with no errors.

The game turned decisively in the third inning, when Otto Lopez delivered a home run off Aaron Civale that swung win probability by 18.4 percentage points, immediately followed by a Joe Mack home run off Civale that added another 10.5 percentage points. Those two swings effectively broke the game open before Oakland could establish any footing. Lopez continued to torment Civale in the fifth inning, adding a double worth 6.2 percentage points of win probability, and finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a cumulative WPA of plus-24.7 and a RE24 of plus-2.5. Mack contributed a WPA of plus-7.9, while Carlos Cortes added plus-4.1. The Athletics had their best chance to chip away in the fourth inning, but Joshua Kuroda-Grauer grounded into a double play off Sandy Alcantara, a sequence that cost Oakland 5.6 percentage points of win probability. Kyle Stowers added a seventh-inning home run off Kade Morris worth 4.8 percentage points to extend the cushion.

On the mound, Sandy Alcantara was the anchor of the effort, posting a WPA of plus-21.5 as he repeatedly suppressed Oakland's attempts to rally. José Suarez and Elvis Alvarado provided additional support at plus-1.4 and plus-0.4, respectively. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Lopez and Alcantara as the two central figures in a performance that was largely decided before the middle innings.