St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals shutout the Chicago Cubs 3-0 at Wrigley Field on July 4, 2026, handing the Cubs a loss that saw their win probability fall from a pre-game 54 percent all the way to zero. St. Louis scored in the first, third, and eighth innings, never allowing Chicago to answer, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs victory eroded steadily across nine innings of Cardinals control. Kyle Leahy was the central figure on the mound, leading all pitchers with a win-probability contribution of plus-30.2 percent, while Ryne Stanek added plus-8.8 percent and George Soriano contributed plus-7.5 percent, giving the Cardinals a three-headed bullpen effort that kept Chicago's lineup quiet on five hits.
The eighth inning encapsulated the game's decisive turning point, though it played out as a Cubs near-rally that never materialized. JoJo Romero entered for St. Louis and navigated a sequence that swung win probability in multiple directions within a single frame. Alex Bregman drew a walk that shifted 10.1 percentage points in Chicago's favor, and Pete Crow-Armstrong singled to add another 6.6 points, briefly giving the Cubs some life. But Romero struck out Seiya Suzuki, a swing of minus-11.5 percent for Chicago, and followed by fanning Ian Happ for a minus-7.6 percent blow, ending the threat. Crow-Armstrong was Chicago's most productive offensive contributor overall, finishing with plus-12.8 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24.
On the St. Louis side, JJ Wetherholt led Cardinals batters with plus-8.6 percent WPA and a team-best plus-1.9 RE24, while Michael Conforto added plus-6.2 percent WPA and plus-0.7 RE24 in support of the Cardinals' eight-hit, zero-error performance. Nico Hoerner had singled off Ryne Stanek in the seventh to generate a plus-7.0 percent shift for the Cubs, representing one of their few genuine threats of the afternoon. Chicago's lone error compounded an already difficult day at the plate, and the Cardinals departed Wrigley with a clean sheet on both the scoreboard and the defensive ledger.