San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the San Diego Padres 4-3 on July 3, 2026, at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 69% before the game to a certainty by the final out. The Padres had built a 3-0 lead through six innings, getting solo home runs from Jackson Merrill in the fourth and a double from Xander Bogaerts in the sixth, both off Shohei Ohtani, before the Dodgers mounted a decisive four-run seventh inning that erased the deficit entirely. Teoscar Hernández was the central figure in that rally, delivering a home run off Adrian Morejon that swung win probability by 43.0 percentage points in the Dodgers' favor, the single largest play of the game. A fielder's choice by Kyle Tucker later in the same inning added another 9.7 percentage points to the Dodgers' advantage, and Los Angeles never trailed again.

Hernández finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a cumulative WPA of plus-45.8% and an RE24 of plus-2.2, the kind of performance that defines a comeback win. Merrill led San Diego's contributors with a WPA of plus-14.9% and an RE24 of plus-0.6, and Bogaerts added plus-7.1% WPA despite the Padres ultimately falling short. On the mound, Michael King was the most valuable arm of the night at plus-35.6% WPA, holding San Diego off the board after the Dodgers took the lead and stranding the early damage Ohtani had surrendered. Tanner Scott and Edgardo Henriquez contributed plus-15.2% and plus-10.8% WPA respectively, collectively locking down a Padres lineup that had limited the Dodgers to five hits on the evening. Los Angeles finished with no errors against San Diego's one, a clean defensive performance that complemented the bullpen's work after the pivotal seventh.