Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays shut out the Seattle Mariners 2-0 at T-Mobile Park on July 3, 2026, handing the home club a loss the DiamondIQ model estimated as a 57 percent probability to avoid before first pitch. All the scoring came in the third inning and proved to be all that was needed, as Toronto's pitching staff held Seattle to four hits across nine innings while the Mariners committed two errors in a flat offensive performance.

The decisive sequence began in the top of the third, when Andrés Giménez doubled off Luis Castillo, a swing that shifted win probability 12.5 percent in Toronto's favor and served as the offensive catalyst for the inning. Giménez finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-10.9 percent alongside a plus-1.0 RE24, and Victor Robles contributed a plus-7.6 percent WPA line as Toronto built its two-run advantage. Seattle's best chance to respond came in the bottom of the third, but Colt Emerson grounded into a double play off Dylan Cease, a swing of negative-8.1 percent win probability that effectively extinguished the Mariners' earliest threat. Jeff Hoffman then authored a critical eighth inning, retiring J.P. Crawford on a strikeout for a negative-7.4 percent WPA shift against Seattle and following with a negative-7.0 percent strikeout of Emerson, the two whiffs worth a combined plus-13.3 percent WPA for Hoffman's ledger.

Dylan Cease was the game's dominant figure on the mound, accumulating a plus-42.3 percent WPA as he repeatedly suppressed Seattle's lineup through the bulk of the contest. Hoffman added plus-13.3 percent WPA in relief, and José A. Ferrer contributed plus-4.2 percent to close it out, with Josh Naylor's forceout in the bottom of the ninth registering a plus-12.0 percent WPA swing that sealed the final out. The DiamondIQ model's estimate finished at zero percent for Seattle, a reflection of how completely Toronto controlled the game from the third inning onward.