MLB Recap · June 29, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

PIT11
Final
PHI7

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PIT00026000311110
PHI203000020792

The Story

The Pittsburgh Pirates erased a 5-2 deficit to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies 11-7 at Citizens Bank Park on June 29, 2026, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Philadelphia win fall from 59 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. The Phillies built their early cushion with a two-run first inning and a three-run third, the latter highlighted by a Bryce Harper home run off Braxton Ashcraft that added 11.0 percent to Philadelphia's win probability and appeared to give the home side firm control. Pittsburgh answered with two runs in the fourth, then erupted for six in the fifth, a rally that included an Endy Rodríguez walk off Seth Johnson that swung win probability 10.3 percent in the Pirates' favor and effectively turned the game's momentum on its head.

The eighth inning produced the game's most volatile sequence. With Philadelphia trailing 8-5 but threatening against Yohan Ramírez, J.T. Realmuto laced a single that added 18.0 percent to the Phillies' win probability, cutting the deficit and energizing Citizens Bank Park. However, Justin Crawford's strikeout against Ramírez two batters later erased 22.1 percent from Philadelphia's chances, the single largest win-probability swing of the night, and left the rally stillborn. Pittsburgh then sealed the outcome with three runs in the ninth, capped by a Rodríguez home run off Chase Shugart that added another 14.6 percent to the Pirates' ledger.

Rodríguez was Pittsburgh's most impactful performer, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-24.1 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.8, driven by both his fifth-inning walk during the decisive rally and his ninth-inning insurance blast. Esmerlyn Valdez contributed plus-20.4 percent WPA and plus-2.8 RE24 in support, while Realmuto led Philadelphia at plus-22.2 percent WPA despite the loss. On the mound, Evan Sisk added plus-6.3 percent WPA out of the Pittsburgh bullpen, and Tim Mayza contributed plus-3.0 percent, helping the Pirates hold off any further Phillies threats after the eighth.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PIT bats firstFinalPHI win %PIT win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58.6% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Justin Crawford Strikeout
Bot 8th · off Yohan Ramírez
-22.1%
J.T. Realmuto Single
Bot 8th · off Yohan Ramírez
+18.0%
Endy Rodríguez Home Run
Top 9th · off Chase Shugart
+14.6%
Bryce Harper Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Braxton Ashcraft
+11.0%
Top 5th · off Seth Johnson
+10.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Endy Rodríguez+24.1%+3.8 RE24
J.T. Realmuto+22.2%+1.1 RE24
Esmerlyn Valdez+20.4%+2.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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