Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Miami Marlins 2-1 at Busch Stadium on June 28, 2026, with all of the Cardinals' scoring coming in the second inning and the Marlins unable to overcome the early deficit despite a fifth-inning run. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at 55 percent in favor of St. Louis before the game and finished at 100 percent by the final out, reflecting how thoroughly the Cardinals controlled the contest once they established their lead.

The swing of the game arrived in the bottom of the second, when Bryan Torres delivered a home run off Tyler Phillips that registered a win-probability swing of plus-11.5 percent for St. Louis, accounting for both Cardinals runs in what became the decisive frame. Miami had its best chance to shift momentum in the top of the fifth, when Owen Caissie laced a double off Kyle Leahy for a plus-7.1 percent swing and eventually led to the Marlins' lone run. However, Jakob Marsee's lineout in that same inning cost Miami 7.3 percent in win probability and capped the damage at one. The Marlins' hopes dimmed further in the seventh when Joe Mack grounded into a double play off Ryne Stanek, a minus-9.2 percent swing that effectively closed the door on any late comeback.

On the individual side, Torres and Pedro Pagés each finished with plus-9.3 percent WPA among batters, while Caissie contributed plus-8.5 percent for Miami in a losing effort. The Cardinals' bullpen was the story on the mound, with Riley O'Brien leading all pitchers at plus-15.2 percent WPA, followed by JoJo Romero at plus-11.4 percent and George Soriano at plus-10.8 percent. St. Louis held Miami to four hits and committed no errors, making it a clean, efficient victory built on a two-run second inning and a lockdown relief corps.