Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the San Diego Padres 4-2 at Petco Park on June 28, 2026, completing the victory with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 42 percent pre-game home win probability to zero by the final out. The Dodgers struck first in the third inning, and while the Padres managed to answer in the fourth, a three-run fifth inning proved to be the decisive blow, pushing Los Angeles ahead by a margin San Diego never recovered from.
The swing points that defined the contest came in concentrated bursts. Manny Machado was the most impactful offensive player on either side, accounting for a combined 18.2 percent in WPA. His fourth-inning home run off Emmet Sheehan generated a 12.1 percent win-probability swing, giving the Padres a brief foothold before the Dodgers' fifth-inning rally erased it. Freddie Freeman's walk off Michael King in the top of the fifth, worth 10.3 percent in win probability, helped ignite that three-run frame. San Diego's most consequential threat came in the bottom of the eighth, when Machado doubled off Tanner Scott for a 12.4 percent swing, bringing the tying run to the plate. But the inning unraveled quickly, as Xander Bogaerts struck out for a 10.4 percent loss and Miguel Andujar grounded into a double play, the single largest win-probability swing of the game at negative 23.3 percent, effectively ending any realistic chance of a Padres comeback.
Tanner Scott led all pitchers with 17.4 percent in WPA despite surrendering the Machado double, as his ability to induce the inning-ending double play from Andujar was the defining moment of his outing. Emmet Sheehan contributed 5.6 percent and Wandy Peralta added 5.0 percent in WPA for Los Angeles. On the offensive side, Shohei Ohtani finished second among batters with 10.8 percent in WPA, while Fernando Tatis Jr. posted 9.6 percent in WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.6, reflecting the limits of his contribution in run-expectancy terms even as he factored into key moments by win probability.