Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies held on to defeat the New York Mets 2-1 at Citi Field on June 26, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets win beginning at 39% before the game and falling to 0% by the final out. Philadelphia scored first in the top of the first inning, surrendered the tying run in the bottom of the fourth, then broke the deadlock in the seventh before preserving the one-run margin through nine. The Phillies finished with nine hits against the Mets' five, with each team committing one error across the contest.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the top of the seventh, when Trea Turner delivered a single off Huascar Brazobán that shifted win probability 14.6 points in Philadelphia's favor, proving to be the margin-deciding hit of the game. New York's best chance to respond came in the bottom of the eighth, when Carson Benge's pop out against Orion Kerkering swung win probability 12.9 points back toward Philadelphia, extinguishing a late rally. The game's single largest probability swing arrived in the bottom of the ninth, when Jared Young struck out against Jhoan Duran to move win probability 27.0 points toward the Phillies and seal the result.

Jared Young led all players by WPA at plus-28.7%, his strikeout to end the game serving as the defining moment in DiamondIQ's accounting of the contest. Turner finished second among position players at plus-16.0% with a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Bryce Harper added plus-7.2% WPA and plus-0.8 RE24. On the mound, Zach Thornton led Philadelphia's staff with plus-28.4% WPA despite Alec Bohm grounding into double plays in both the third and sixth innings to blunt Phillies threats. Zack Wheeler contributed plus-27.1% WPA and Kerkering added plus-23.3%, giving Philadelphia a collective pitching performance that proved just enough to outlast the Mets at Citi Field.