San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the San Francisco Giants 2-1 at loanDepot park on June 21, 2026, a low-scoring affair that unfolded almost entirely in the early innings before Miami's bullpen slammed the door shut. The Marlins scored their two runs in the second and fourth innings, with Otto Lopez delivering the decisive blow in the bottom of the fourth — a double off Logan Webb that added 13.0% to Miami's win probability and proved to be the margin of victory. San Francisco's lone run came in the third, but the Giants never threatened meaningfully after that, finishing with just four hits against a Marlins pitching staff that kept them off-balance throughout.

The DiamondIQ model opened the night favoring Miami at 65% and closed at 100%, a trajectory shaped largely by San Francisco's repeated failure to capitalize in the later innings. The two most damaging swings of the game came in the ninth, when Willy Adames grounded into a double play off Lake Bachar, collapsing the Giants' win probability by 15.7%, and in the seventh, when Drew Gilbert hit into another double play off Calvin Faucher, costing San Francisco 13.2%. A Rafael Devers walk in the ninth briefly extended hope, adding 10.6% to the Giants' chances, but Jung Hoo Lee's subsequent flyout erased much of that gain at minus 10.1%, and Adames's double play ended the threat entirely.

Lake Bachar was the top-performing pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing 15.2% to Miami's win probability in his closing work, followed by Calvin Faucher at plus 11.9% and Logan Webb at plus 11.6% despite being the pitcher of record for the loss. On the offensive side, Casey Schmitt led all batters with a WPA of plus 12.6% and an RE24 of plus 0.9, with Otto Lopez close behind at plus 9.2% WPA and plus 0.6 RE24, his fourth-inning double serving as the game's most consequential single plate appearance.