New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the New York Mets 5-3 at Great American Ball Park on June 16, 2026, in a game the DiamondIQ model entered with a 59 percent home win probability that ultimately closed at 100 percent. Cincinnati seized control immediately, plating four runs in the first inning to establish a commanding advantage they never relinquished. The Mets chipped away with a run in the third and two more in the sixth, but the Reds added an insurance run in the fifth to keep New York at a distance. The final line read NYM 3/7/0, CIN 5/6/1.

The decisive moments were shaped by Brady Singer above all else. The Reds starter finished as the game's most impactful pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing plus-14.9 percent in win probability, and a Carson Benge flyout in the top of the fourth represented a swing of minus-7.8 percent against the Mets, snuffing out a potential rally. Mark Vientos provided New York's most significant offensive jolt with a home run off Sam Moll in the top of the sixth worth plus-12.3 percent, briefly tightening the contest. However, the Mets' best threat came in the eighth against Tejay Antone, where a Brett Baty walk opened the door for plus-10.0 percent in swing value, only for Antone to immediately answer by striking out Vientos and Francisco Alvarez for losses of minus-9.0 and minus-8.9 percent respectively, effectively closing the door on any comeback.

Among position players, Baty led all batters at plus-14.7 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 despite the team's loss, while on the Cincinnati side Sal Stewart posted the most productive plate appearance value at plus-2.5 RE24 and plus-7.1 percent WPA, and Blake Dunn contributed plus-8.6 percent WPA. Antone and Brock Burke combined for plus-15.3 percent WPA out of the Cincinnati bullpen, preserving Singer's early work and securing the Reds' two-run victory.