Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies shut out the Miami Marlins 7-0 on June 15, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Philadelphia win from 59 percent before first pitch to a certain 100 percent by game's end. Philadelphia scored in five of nine innings, building their lead methodically with two runs in the second, two more in the third, two in the fifth, and a final pair in the eighth, while Miami managed just five hits and never crossed the plate.

The most decisive swings came in the middle innings, where Ryan Gusto absorbed the brunt of Philadelphia's damage. Gabriel Rincones Jr. opened the scoring with a home run in the bottom of the second, a hit that shifted win probability 7.6 percentage points in Philadelphia's favor. The third inning piled on further, as Justin Crawford's single moved the needle 5.8 points before J.T. Realmuto added a fielder's choice worth another 4.9 points. Realmuto then delivered the game's single largest win-probability swing in the fifth, a home run off Gusto that pushed Philadelphia's advantage by 8.7 points. The lone notable Miami moment came in the top of the fifth, when Joe Mack doubled off Zack Wheeler for a 6.0-point swing, though it came to nothing with the Marlins already well behind.

By individual contribution, Realmuto led all batters with a combined WPA of plus 12.0 and an RE24 of plus 2.0, while Rincones finished at plus 8.6 WPA and Mack at plus 6.7 for Miami despite the loss. Zack Wheeler was the standout of the evening, posting a WPA of plus 17.2, the highest mark on the board, as he held Miami's offense in check and kept the Phillies' probability firmly out of reach throughout his outing. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Wheeler's performance as the single greatest factor in Philadelphia's commanding victory.