San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres handed the Baltimore Orioles a 9-3 defeat at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 13, 2026, a result that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Baltimore win from a near-even 49 percent before first pitch to zero by the final out. San Diego wasted no time asserting control, plating four runs in the top of the first inning, a burst that immediately tilted the game's probability landscape. Baltimore had chances to respond but repeatedly squandered them, with Colton Cowser's flyout in the bottom of the first carrying a win-probability swing of negative 5.4 percent and Taylor Ward's strikeout in the second adding another negative 6.5 percent drain on the Orioles' chances. The most damaging moment for Baltimore came in the bottom of the fifth, when Gunnar Henderson grounded into a double play off Randy Vásquez, a sequence that cost the Orioles 7.3 percent in win probability at a juncture where they still needed offense badly.

Vásquez was the dominant force of the evening, finishing with a win-probability contribution of plus 25.8 percent, the highest mark of any player on either side. He consistently neutralized Baltimore's lineup and set the tone for a bullpen that held firm, with Yuki Matsui adding plus 4.1 percent. Offensively, Gavin Sheets led San Diego's batters with plus 6.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Samad Taylor was the most impactful run-producer, posting plus 5.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.6, including a fifth-inning single off Keegan Akin worth plus 6.6 percent in win probability that helped extend the Padres' cushion. Jase Bowen's strikeout to open the top of the first, which registered as plus 7.3 percent from the batting team's perspective, set an early tone of Baltimore's inability to record quick outs and contain the damage. San Diego finished with ten hits and no errors, while Baltimore also collected ten hits but could not convert them into meaningful scoring against a Padres pitching staff that managed the game efficiently throughout.