Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-1 at Great American Ball Park on June 13, 2026, in a low-scoring game that the DiamondIQ model entered at essentially even odds, with Cincinnati holding a 52 percent pre-game home win probability. The Diamondbacks drew first blood with a run in the top of the first, but Cincinnati answered with a run in the third and the decisive blow in the eighth, ultimately pushing the model's estimate to 100 percent in favor of the Reds by game's end.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, when Noelvi Marte connected on a home run off Juan Morillo, a swing that added 21.4 percent to Cincinnati's win probability and proved to be the margin of victory. Arizona had chances to seize control in the seventh inning, but the frame was defined by failure — Pavin Smith's flyout cost the Diamondbacks 12.3 percent in win probability, Nolan Arenado's strikeout against Chase Petty erased another 10.4 percent, and Ketel Marte's groundout to open the eighth added another 12.2 percent in lost equity. Gabriel Moreno's hit by pitch in the seventh had briefly injected life into the Arizona half-inning, representing an 11.5 percent positive swing, but the rally dissolved without a run.

On the pitching side, Michael Soroka was the most valuable arm of the evening by WPA, contributing 32.5 percent to the Reds' win probability, followed by Chase Petty at 21.8 percent and Rhett Lowder at 18.0 percent. Noelvi Marte led all batters with a WPA of plus 16.8 percent and an RE24 of plus 0.6, while Gabriel Moreno and Edwin Arroyo each posted an RE24 of plus 1.1, the highest marks of the game at the plate. Arizona finished with seven hits against three for Cincinnati, but the Reds' efficiency with those three hits, including Marte's decisive blast, proved to be the difference.