Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 7-4 at Rogers Centre on June 10, 2026, building a commanding lead through four innings and holding on despite a Blue Jays push in the seventh. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Toronto a 47% chance of winning at home, but that estimate collapsed as Philadelphia scored six of its seven runs before the fifth inning.

The decisive moment came in the top of the third, when Alec Bohm connected on a home run off Max Scherzer, a swing the DiamondIQ model valued at plus 23.5% in win probability — the single largest play of the game. Bohm was the most impactful performer overall, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 24.4% and an RE24 of plus 2.3. Kyle Schwarber added to the damage in the fourth with a home run off Mason Fluharty, a plus 8.1% swing, and closed with a WPA of plus 11.2% and an RE24 of plus 1.9. Toronto attempted a rally in the seventh, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. drawing a walk off Chase Shugart for a plus 7.3% swing, but Ernie Clement's sacrifice fly in that same frame carried a minus 10.2% impact from the Blue Jays' perspective, reflecting how costly each Philadelphia run proved. Guerrero Jr. then grounded into a double play in the ninth off Jhoan Duran, a minus 7.7% swing that extinguished any remaining threat.

On the mound, Jesús Luzardo was the model's top-rated pitcher, contributing plus 15.7% in WPA, while José Alvarado followed with plus 5.2% and Spencer Miles added plus 1.0%. George Springer was Toronto's most effective offensive contributor at plus 8.8% WPA, though it was not nearly enough to offset Philadelphia's early burst. The Phillies finished with ten hits against eight for Toronto, and the DiamondIQ model's final win probability for the Blue Jays settled at 0%.