Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 8 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins shut out the Arizona Diamondbacks 8-0 on June 10, 2026, at loanDepot park, turning what opened as a near coin-flip into a dominant home victory. The DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate gave Miami a 52 percent chance to win, but that figure climbed steadily and ultimately reached 100 percent by the final out, with the game's outcome effectively decided in the middle innings.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fourth, where Miami did the bulk of its damage against Arizona starter Ryne Nelson. Owen Caissie delivered the single most impactful swing of the night, a home run that shifted win probability by plus-18.6 percent and stood as the game's defining moment. Kyle Stowers added his own home run in that same frame for a plus-8.7 percent swing, while Otto Lopez contributed a single worth plus-5.0 percent to keep the rally sustained. The inning itself accounted for six of Miami's eight runs. Lopez had actually set the tone an inning earlier, ripping a single off Nelson in the third that moved the needle plus-9.3 percent, beginning the gradual erosion of Arizona's footing. The lone notable moment for the Diamondbacks came in the top of the fourth, when Gabriel Moreno drew a walk off Ryan Gusto for a plus-4.5 percent swing, though it produced nothing on the scoreboard.
Among the individual standouts, Caissie finished with a game-high plus-16.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.9, while Lopez contributed plus-12.5 percent WPA across his two key singles. Stowers posted the top RE24 mark of the night at plus-3.0 to go with his plus-10.0 percent WPA. On the mound, Ryan Gusto led Miami's pitching staff with a plus-15.1 percent WPA, holding Arizona scoreless across his appearances and rendering the Diamondbacks' six hits entirely inconsequential. Arizona finished the game with no runs, six hits, and no errors, but was never able to convert any of that offensive activity into meaningful pressure against a Marlins team that controlled the contest from the third inning onward.