Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 4-3 at loanDepot park on June 6, 2026, in a game that was tightly contested through four scoreless innings before Miami seized control. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 39 percent home win probability for the Marlins, a figure that climbed steadily as Miami's offense and bullpen took over. The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the fifth, when Javier Sanoja connected on a home run off Shane McClanahan, a swing that added 12.4 percent to Miami's win probability and served as the evening's single most positive batting play. That same inning, Kyle Stowers grounded into a double play that cost the Marlins 9.3 percent in win probability, a missed opportunity to extend the damage further, but Miami still walked away from the fifth inning holding a 2-0 lead that proved foundational.
Tampa Bay managed only isolated threats through the middle innings, finally pushing across a run in the eighth and two more in the ninth, but the late rally fell short. The most damaging moment for the Rays came in the top of the ninth when Junior Caminero struck out against Tyler Zuber, a swing and miss that subtracted 13.5 percent from Tampa Bay's win probability and effectively extinguished the comeback. Jonathan Aranda drew a walk off Pete Fairbanks that added 10.5 percent in the same frame, while Taylor Walls had grounded into a double play in the fifth that cost the Rays 11.3 percent, compounding their early deficit at a critical juncture.
Sanoja led all batters with a 17.1 percent WPA and a 1.7 RE24 mark, making him the clear offensive catalyst. Esteury Ruiz posted the game's top RE24 figure at 1.9 to go with a 6.7 percent WPA, while Victor Mesa Jr. contributed a 7.8 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Lake Bachar paced Miami's staff with a 15.5 percent WPA, followed by Zuber at 13.5 percent and Calvin Faucher at 9.3 percent, a trio that collectively shut the door on a Rays lineup that finished with just five hits and an error on the evening.