Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Baltimore Orioles 6-4 on June 6, 2026, at Rogers Centre, turning what began as a tight contest into a decisive home victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Toronto a 54% win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, with the outcome hinging on a handful of high-leverage swings that broke the game open in the middle innings.

The single most consequential moment came in the bottom of the third inning, when Ernie Clement drove a home run off Kyle Bradish that shifted win probability by 26.9 percentage points in Toronto's favor — the defining blow of the evening. That inning produced four runs for the Blue Jays and effectively established the game's outcome. Clement finished as the top performer by WPA at plus 25.9, supported by a RE24 of plus 3.0, making him the clear offensive catalyst. Brandon Valenzuela had also contributed earlier with a double off Bradish in the second inning worth plus 6.4% in win probability, and he ended the night at plus 10.8 WPA with a RE24 of plus 1.7. Baltimore mounted some resistance, with Blaze Alexander's seventh-inning home run off Mason Fluharty adding plus 8.6% for the Orioles and Pete Alonso's sixth-inning shot off Jeff Hoffman worth plus 7.8%, but those swings were insufficient to overcome Toronto's cushion.

On the pitching side, Tyler Rogers led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 15.2, with Spencer Miles adding plus 7.1 and Louis Varland contributing plus 6.3 in support of the Blue Jays' staff effort. Baltimore's Kyle Bradish absorbed the damage in the critical early frames, surrendering the Clement home run and the Valenzuela double that set the tone. The final line — Toronto 6, Baltimore 4, with the Blue Jays going 12-for-their-at-bats and committing no errors — reflected a performance where Toronto controlled the game far more thoroughly than the two-run margin might suggest.