Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles rolled to an 8-2 victory at Fenway Park on June 4, 2026, delivering a decisive road win that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston victory at exactly zero percent by game's end, down from a pre-game home win probability of 49 percent. Baltimore struck early and emphatically, plating six runs in the first inning to effectively end the contest before it had time to develop, with Boston never threatening to answer in a meaningful way.

The win-probability swings of the game's biggest plays told a clear story of missed opportunities for Boston and sustained pressure from Baltimore. In the bottom of the first, Wilyer Abreu's lineout against Trevor Rogers cost the Red Sox 10.6 percent in win probability, and Andruw Monasterio's pop out in the bottom of the second drained another 11.2 percent, a combined swing that illustrated how thoroughly Rogers neutralized Boston's attempts to claw back. On the Baltimore side, Leody Taveras contributed a flyout in the top of the second that added 10.1 percent to the Orioles' win probability in context, and Adley Rutschman's strikeout in the first added 9.9 percent, reflecting the unusual run environment Rogers had already established. Samuel Basallo chipped in a double in the fifth off Brayan Bello for a modest additional 1.8 percent swing.

Trevor Rogers was the standout performer of the night by a considerable margin, posting a WPA of plus-27.8 percent in a dominant outing that held Boston to minimal production. Taveras and Rutschman led Baltimore's position players at plus-10.2 and plus-9.8 percent WPA respectively, while Basallo added plus-1.6 percent with his double. Andrew Kittredge and Tommy Kahnle each finished at 0.0 percent WPA in relief, completing a clean team effort that Baltimore executed without an error across nine innings.