Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-3 at Progressive Field on May 26, 2026, handing Cleveland a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate made increasingly inevitable after a pivotal second inning swung the game's trajectory sharply away from the home side. Cleveland entered with a 58 percent pre-game win probability, but that advantage evaporated quickly as Washington's offense did its most decisive work early.

The second inning proved to be the turning point in both directions. Steven Kwan's flyout to close the bottom half of the inning was the single most impactful play of the game, costing Cleveland 11.5 percent in win probability and effectively snuffing out any early momentum the Guardians might have built against Cade Cavalli. In the top half, Washington had already done significant damage off Joey Cantillo, with CJ Abrams contributing a caught stealing that added 9.4 percent win probability for the Nationals — a rare base-running play that shaped the inning's run-scoring context — followed by a James Wood home run worth 6.9 percent. Washington posted four runs in that frame and never trailed again. Travis Bazzana's walk in the bottom of the fifth added 9.5 percent for Cleveland and briefly kept the Guardians alive, while Chase DeLauter's single in the eighth generated 6.6 percent, but Washington's two-run ninth and a mostly quiet Guardians lineup made any comeback aspirations academic.

On the mound, Cade Cavalli was the game's most dominant force, finishing with a model-leading 28.8 percent WPA, limiting Cleveland despite the Bazzana walk and absorbing traffic without yielding the decisive blow. Mitchell Parker and Codi Heuer contributed 5.4 and 4.3 percent respectively in relief. Offensively, Abrams led Washington's position players at plus-10.0 percent WPA, with Wood close behind at plus-9.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.5, reflecting his direct run-production impact. Bazzana topped Cleveland's contributors at plus-9.0 percent WPA and plus-2.0 RE24, though his efforts were insufficient against a Nationals club that controlled the game from the second inning forward.