Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals handed the Cleveland Guardians a 10-2 defeat at Progressive Field on May 25, 2026, a result that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 60 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to zero. Washington wasted little time establishing control, scoring three runs in each of the first two innings and adding tallies in the third, fifth, and sixth to finish with 15 hits and no errors against Cleveland's seven hits and one miscue.

The pivotal swings in win probability came early and repeatedly favored Washington. PJ Poulin was the most impactful arm of the night, accumulating a plus-22.1 percent WPA on the mound by inducing critical outs at the worst moments for Cleveland, including Chase DeLauter's ground into a double play in the bottom of the first that swung win probability 10.5 percent in Washington's favor, and Steven Kwan's ground into a double play in the bottom of the second that moved the needle another 15.3 percent. On the Cleveland side, Tanner Bibee absorbed damaging at-bats, with Curtis Mead's flyout in the top of the second registering a 12.9 percent swing and Daylen Lile's groundout in the top of the first adding 8.2 percent, both in Washington's favor as the Nationals built their cushion while leaving Cleveland in increasingly dire territory.

Curtis Mead led all position players with a plus-16.0 percent WPA and a plus-1.7 RE24, while Luis García Jr. contributed a plus-5.9 percent WPA and the game's best RE24 mark among batters at plus-3.6, punctuated by a home run off Bibee in the top of the second. Zack Littell provided additional pitching support at plus-2.9 percent WPA, and Logan Allen was the lone Washington arm in negative territory at minus-1.2 percent. The Guardians never recovered from the double plays that erased whatever momentum their early home-field advantage suggested they might carry.