MLB Recap · May 24, 2026

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

DET3
Final
BAL5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
DET000200010370
BAL000001013551

The Story

Baltimore walked off Detroit 5-3 on May 24, 2026 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, erasing what had been a Tigers lead entering the ninth inning with a stunning three-run rally against closer Kenley Jansen. The DiamondIQ model opened the night favoring Baltimore at 61 percent and closed at 100 percent, the probability line holding relatively steady through eight innings before the bottom of the ninth completely rewrote the outcome.

The decisive moment came from Colton Cowser, whose ninth-inning home run off Jansen registered a win-probability swing of plus-82.1 percent, the single largest play of the game and the blow that turned a deficit into a walkoff victory. Cowser finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-77.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.5, numbers that reflect just how singularly his at-bat defined the contest. The path to that moment was complicated by two outs that nearly ended Baltimore's night: Pete Alonso's flyout in the eighth carried a minus-22.1 percent WP swing, and Jeremiah Jackson's flyout to open the ninth cost the Orioles minus-14.9 percent before the rally resumed. Jackson had kept the eighth-inning threat alive with a double off Kyle Finnegan worth plus-12.4 percent. Gunnar Henderson had provided Baltimore's only earlier offense with a solo home run in the sixth off Framber Valdez, a plus-13.7 percent swing that kept the Orioles within reach and left Henderson second among position players at plus-20.7 percent WPA.

On the pitching side, Framber Valdez led all pitchers with a plus-21.9 percent WPA despite surrendering the Henderson homer, while Will Vest and Dietrich Enns added plus-9.7 and plus-7.3 percent respectively in support. Detroit's Colt Keith posted the third-highest WPA among batters at plus-12.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-0.9, contributing to a Tigers offense that built a 3-1 lead through eight innings on seven hits without committing an error, only to see Jansen and the bullpen unable to hold it in the final frame.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025DET bats firstFinalBAL win %DET win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 60.6% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Colton Cowser Home Run
Bot 9th · off Kenley Jansen
+82.1%
Pete Alonso Flyout
Bot 8th · off Kenley Jansen
-22.1%
Jeremiah Jackson Flyout
Bot 9th · off Kenley Jansen
-14.9%
Gunnar Henderson Home Run
Bot 6th · off Framber Valdez
+13.7%
Jeremiah Jackson Double
Bot 8th · off Kyle Finnegan
+12.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Colton Cowser+77.5%+2.5 RE24
Gunnar Henderson+20.7%+1.1 RE24
Colt Keith+12.1%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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