New York Mets at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the New York Mets 4-1 on May 23, 2026, at loanDepot park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Marlins win climbing from 57% before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. Miami did its damage early and often against Mets starter Freddy Peralta, building a lead that the Mets never seriously threatened. New York finished with just three hits and scored its lone run in the top of the ninth, long after the game had been decided.

The pivotal sequence came in the second and third innings, where the Marlins constructed their winning margin almost entirely at Peralta's expense. Owen Caissie's double in the bottom of the second shifted win probability 9.4 points in Miami's favor, and Connor Norby followed with a single that added another 3.4 points, framing a two-run frame. Liam Hicks then delivered the knockout blow an inning later, hitting a home run off Peralta that swung win probability an additional 8.3 points toward the Marlins. Hicks went back to work in the fifth with another solo home run off Peralta, adding 5.5 more points to Miami's probability edge. Carson Benge's strikeout against Max Meyer in the top of the third represented the Mets' most damaging at-bat, costing New York 3.1 points of win probability at a moment when a rally might have mattered.

Hicks finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accounting for plus-13.5 win probability points and a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Caissie contributed plus-8.3 win probability points and plus-1.0 RE24. On the mound, Max Meyer was the story, posting a plus-22.1 win probability contribution that anchored the Marlins' pitching effort and rendered the Mets' lineup largely irrelevant after the early innings.