Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Detroit Tigers 7-4 on May 22, 2026, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 59% pre-game home win probability to a virtual certainty by the final out. The game's decisive stretch came in the third and fourth innings, where Baltimore built an insurmountable lead through a pair of home runs that each dramatically shifted the win-probability landscape. Pete Alonso's home run off Jack Flaherty in the bottom of the third was the single most impactful play of the night, swinging win probability by 29.1 points in Baltimore's favor, and Jackson Holliday followed in the bottom of the fourth with a home run off Flaherty that added another 17.6 points. Detroit briefly pushed back in the top of the fourth, with Spencer Torkelson's double off Chris Bassitt contributing an 11.8-point swing, and consecutive contributions from Hao-Yu Lee's single and Zach McKinstry's fielder's choice adding 9.7 and 8.6 points respectively, but Baltimore's cushion proved too substantial to overcome.

Alonso finished as the night's top performer by WPA at plus 27.5, paired with a RE24 of plus 2.4, reflecting his outsized run-environment impact. Holliday was nearly as impactful at plus 20.0 WPA and plus 1.9 RE24, while Lee contributed a plus 11.0 WPA and plus 1.0 RE24 in a supporting role for Detroit. On the pitching side, the Baltimore bullpen reinforced the win, with Rico Garcia leading relief contributors at plus 8.5 WPA, followed by Brant Hurter at plus 6.4 and Yennier Cano at plus 5.0. Baltimore's 14 hits to Detroit's 7, combined with a clean defensive effort against Detroit's one error, underscored the Orioles' thorough command of the contest from the third inning forward.