Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks walked off the Colorado Rockies 2-1 on May 21, 2026 at Chase Field, with Corbin Carroll delivering the game-winning single in the bottom of the ninth off Juan Mejia to close out a tight, low-scoring affair. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring Arizona at 69% and reached 100% certainty the moment Carroll's hit ended it.

The game's most consequential sequence outside the final out came in the top of the eighth, when Colorado mounted its most credible threat of the night. A walk to Willi Castro off Juan Morillo shifted win probability 16.3 points in Colorado's favor, and a hit by pitch to Tyler Freeman added another 15.4 points, putting genuine pressure on the Arizona bullpen. Kevin Ginkel entered and induced a groundout from Ezequiel Tovar that swung win probability 15.2 points back toward the Diamondbacks, effectively snuffing the rally. Colorado did push across its lone run in that frame, but the threat ended there. Earlier, in the bottom of the sixth, Ildemaro Vargas grounded into a double play off Blas Castaño, a play that cost Colorado 14.0 points of win probability and helped Arizona preserve a clean sheet through six innings.

Arizona's pitching staff drove the outcome as much as its offense did. Zach Agnos led all pitchers with a 31.5% WPA, followed by Eduardo Rodriguez at 28.3% and Ginkel's clutch eighth contributing 26.9%. Among position players, Carroll topped the lineup at plus-31.0% WPA despite only a plus-0.3 RE24, reflecting the outsized leverage of his walk-off hit. Castro finished at plus-24.2% WPA and led regulars with a plus-1.3 RE24 even in a losing effort, making him the most impactful Rockies bat by the DiamondIQ model's estimate despite Colorado finishing on the wrong side of a 2-1 final.